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Investigating Irans role in Caspian basin gas transfer: cooperative game theory approach
Soroosh Baghdadi *, Saeed Moshiri, Amir Jafarzadeh
Abstract:   (1443 Views)
This research aims to study the probable scenarios on the natural gas transmission through the pipeline from the Caspian basin to the western region and Europe. We first project the future of world natural gas demand, supply، and available sources in the Caspian basin. In the second stage، we make an economic evaluation of the current projects and most probable scenarios in the next 30 years. In the third step، we calculate each playerchr('39')s bargaining power by using the Shapely value in probable scenarios. The results indicate that transfer of natural gas by pipeline through Iran (southern corridor) is more economical than the trans-Caspian project (TCP). The results of the cooperative game theory indicate that the geographical situation of the countries plays an essential role in their bargaining power in the geopolitics of energy. Iranchr('39')s contribution to the gas export to Europe، especially the establishment of the Pars pipeline project، would promote the countrychr('39')s bargaining power and, consequently، its national power. Including a political risk factor in the calculations related to the net present value(NPV) and investigating the situation in Kazakhstan adjoining are innovative aspects of the research.
Keywords: Cooperative game theory, Caspian basin, energy economics, energy geopolitics, Natural gas, Caspian basin
     
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2020/08/18 | Accepted: 2021/07/1
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مجله پژوهش های برنامه ریزی و سیاستگذاری انرژی Journal of Energy Planning And Policy Research
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