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Modelling Energy Demand in Iran Using LEAP
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Abstract: (11644 Views) |
| Energy planning and applying the energy policy tools are one of the most important strategic issues to meet energy demand in today's society. In this paper, the structure of final energy consumption in Iran is modeled using LEAP modeling tool. Therefore, firstly, the country's energy consumption and analysis of the historical behavior of Iran energy system have been assessed. Then, the energy demand modeling methodology (fundamentals of computing and model formulation) in various sectors of economic and social are analyzed with bottom up- modeling approach. In this research, energy demand system is simulated in 5 major sectors: household, commercial and services, agriculture, industry, transport and lighting in minor sectors. Also, useful and final energy demand in these sectors is estimated to 1420 year. Finally, modelling results are validated by comparing the model estimation in years 1378-1389 with the real data of energy consumption in MAPE and MSPE factors. And results are analysed in various sectors. Modeling results showing a growth in energy demand under different sectors in economic growth is desired. This indicates that in order to achieve the Country outlook (vision) program, energy consumption and energy intensity have increased, surprisingly, this move requires the optimal utilization of resources. |
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| Keywords: Energy modeling, energy demand, LEAP modeling tool. |
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Full-Text [PDF 3924 kb]
(5671 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
General
Received: 2014/06/23 | Accepted: 2014/06/23 | Published: 2014/06/23
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