This paper aims at exploring Iran’s optimal strategy for natural gas export using Agent-Based
Modeling (ABM) approach. Ten potential importers of Iran’s natural gas and seven rival
exporting countries have been designated as agents. The conceptual framework is designed based
on three factors: price, infrastructure, and risk. Using Anylogic software, interactions and
behaviors of importers and exporters have been simulated. The model simulates natural gas trade
between these countries over a nine-year horizon. The empirical results of this study indicate
that, in the first period, Iran’s gas export targets based on their priorities include Turkey, Iraq and
Armenia. After completion of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and subject to the construction of Iran-
Oman gas pipeline, Iran will expand its exports to these countries significantly in the second
period. Iran will expand pipeline exports to Georgia and start its LNG exports to India and China
over the third period.